‘A Critical Scenario’: Conflict on Iran Tightens India's LPG Supplies.

The repercussions of a war being fought nearly a significant distance away are now impacting India's kitchens.

As US-Israeli strikes on Iran hinder energy deliveries through the vital shipping lane, stocks of cooking gas are shrinking across India, pushing restaurants to cut menus, close earlier and in some cases cease operations entirely.

Social media is awash with video clips showing queues outside LPG distributors across Indian urban and rural areas as anxieties over fuel supplies grow. Restaurant kitchens appear the worst hit: the biggest crunch is in commercial eateries.

"The state of affairs is alarming. Cooking gas simply cannot be found," says a spokesperson of the a major restaurant body.

Most food outlets run either on commercial LPG cylinders or piped gas, and the scarcities are now being experienced across the country. "A lot of restaurants have ceased operations - some in the capital, many in the southern states. People are turning to traditional burners and electronic appliances to keep their operations going."

City-Specific Fallout

In Mumbai, local news say up to a 20% of hotels and restaurants are already completely or partially closed as commercial LPG supplies dwindle. In the southern cities of tech and coastal hubs, some establishments say their cylinder inventory have dwindled with scarce alternatives. "Coffee is the sole item we can prepare and nothing else - it is extremely difficult. Commerce will take a hit," says a business operator in Bengaluru.

Restaurant operators are scrambling to adapt. "Offering lists are shrinking, some are cutting lunch service and operating solely in the evening," an industry representative says, adding that closures are changing as supplies ebb and flow. "Several establishments in Delhi were shut yesterday - some have resumed operations. It's a changing landscape."

Retailers observe a spike in sales of electric cookers, with some saying they are facing stockouts.

Government Stance

Yet, the government states there is sufficient stock.

India has more than a vast number of home fuel subscribers and officials say stocks are being redirected to households as conflict-related stress from the Middle East conflict impact energy markets.

About 60% of India's LPG is sourced from abroad, and about 90% of those shipments pass through the key maritime route, the narrow Gulf chokepoint now effectively closed by the hostilities.

The petroleum ministry says that it instructed refineries to maximise LPG output for household consumption, enhancing domestic production by about 25%. Commercial stock is being allocated for essential sectors such as healthcare and education, while distribution will be "fair and transparent".

"Unnecessary hoarding and accumulation has been caused by misinformation. The normal delivery cycle for home fuel remains about two-and-a-half days," says a ministry representative.

Widening Concern

Now the worry is moving beyond kitchens. On digital platforms, a widely shared video from Chennai shows a long, snaking queue of scooters outside a petrol pump. "The panic is real," the caption reads.

According to data from market experts, concerns about India's broader fuel supplies may be premature.

India imports 90% of its oil. Around a significant portion of its oil purchases - about 2.5 to 2.7 million barrels a day - travel through the waterway, largely from regional suppliers.

Even if oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz are disrupted, the gap could be partly compensated for by higher imports of Russian petroleum, according to a sector expert.

Based on vessel tracking and credible market sources, increased Russian crude imports could reach around 1-1.2 million barrels a day, reducing India's effective deficit from exposure to the Strait of Hormuz to about 1.6 million barrels a day.

"Tens of millions of Russian oil barrels are currently on the water in the Indian Ocean and, with only two major Asian economies as major buyers, those barrels remain a ready fallback," an analyst noted.

LPG: The Real Vulnerability

The primary concern is LPG, analysts say.

India consumes roughly a million barrels a day, but produces only 40-45% domestically, importing the rest - the vast majority through the chokepoint.

Refineries can modify output to produce a bit more LPG, but even a limited rise would only lift domestic supply to about under half of demand, leaving the country significantly leaning on imports.

In short: "Oil import vulnerability can be moderately reduced through diversification. Processed petroleum stocks remains largely sufficient. LPG availability is the key factor to track in the coming weeks."

What may be worsening the anxiety on the ground is not just limited availability but erratic supply chains - and the usual problem of panic buying.

An industry representative alleges price gouging.

"Retailers are taking advantage of the situation - selling fuel on the black market and selling them at a premium. In one small town, I heard of cylinders being stockpiled and sold at a premium."

For now, India's oil supplies may be protected by worldwide shipping. But in homes across the country, the more pressing concern is simple: how to get the next refill.