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Whenever the wind blows from the east from Belarus, Lithuania prepares for problems.

That is when large aerial objects are sent across the border, with crates of illicit tobacco dangling beneath.

Over the past 10 weeks, this illicit balloon traffic has forced Lithuania's primary air hub into shutdown 15 times, delaying thousands of travellers.

On one occasion, the national skies was closed completely for a prolonged 11 hours.

However, the government are certain they are facing something considerably more sinister than simple smugglers.

They state the balloons have been "weaponised" in an example of covert aggression by Belarus, Russia's closest ally.

State of Alert

The Lithuanian government has instituted an emergency situation.

While balloons have been utilized by smugglers previously, their numbers increased dramatically this October.

"Naturally it started as criminal enterprise, but we've seen more than once how Belarus exploits organised crime to impact adjacent states," a government minister stated.

The official noted the balloons are sent from locations that help them best "target" Lithuania's main airport, situated just 30km from the border.

"If you want to conduct a contraband run, you'd do it in the forests or marshes, not directly at our airport!" the minister reasoned.

Instead, there is a view that the balloons represent a form of coercive pressure on Europe's border region.

"This is viewed as a pressure tool: 'You have a border with us, we can cause you {huge problems|significant disruption|major issues'," the official said. "What they're doing is really entering the military and security field."

Nocturnal Operations

Now, every night, military police patrol in the border zone.

The balloons are most common under cover of darkness.

Teams establish temporary roadblocks on remote country roads, inspecting drivers' documents and examining vehicles looking for anyone connected to the smuggling networks.

The balloons fly too high up to make intercepting them with firearms a safe or economic option.

Consequently, the government has announced a €1m prize to any firm that can develop how to intercept them.

Currently, teams use military radar to track the balloons and attempt to catch smugglers at the landing sites.

Soon, new legal penalties for aviation disruption should also act as a deterrent.

Underlying Aims

The border itself is now marked by a tall metal fence, with security wire and concrete blocks.

This extra security is a visible indicator of how Lithuania now perceives its neighbour as hostile.

Not far away, the leader of Belarus has rejected all talk of hybrid warfare as "fabricated".

He recently blamed "bandit" smugglers, saying they were simply seeking a profit and getting creative to overcome the new security fence.

Lithuania does not buy that, partly due to a history of hybrid tactics.

In 2021, migrants were assisted to cross into Lithuania and Poland in significant quantities, creating a deliberate crisis.

"The current pattern involves a sequence of one or two balloons every 30 minutes, aimed directly at the airport," explained a crisis management official.

"{In Belarus... if they were interested in stopping it they could do it immediately. But they don't. That implies it benefits them."

The prevailing theory is that Belarus is attempting to pressure its way into lifting international restrictions.

"They want to attract political attention and compel us to change our stance on Belarus," is how one minister views the dramatic increase of balloons.

The EU has not recognized the Belarusian leader as president following disputed elections in 2020 and a subsequent crackdown.

Sanctions were levied then and strengthened later when Belarus aided Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine.

"{First, they want to end the international isolation of the regime and number two, of course, the sanctions," the minister stated.

Consequences for Travel

Currently, travellers and airlines must adjust.

"This is an unprecedented situation for the aviation sector," stated the airport CEO.

One airline has already relocated its charter flights, and another has cut its evening service.

Revenue losses for all affected businesses are projected to reach €2m by year's end.

"One thing is the extra cost, but the even higher risk is if passengers start to lose trust in air travel," he admitted.

Already, travellers consult a new webpage for wind forecasts and balloon likelihood before booking flights.

"It's not easy, it makes me a little bit nervous. I'd just like to get home as planned," one traveller said.

"I am convinced this is a form of aggression on us," said a local resident. "I think for them it's really amusing to fly those balloons and then mock us."

Her words suggest that another aim of such covert tactics – undermining confidence – is also working, and perhaps harder to defend against.

"This is effectively probing the limits of Nato: looking at how we protect against these kinds of things," said another citizen.

"And we can't even deal with simple balloons. We're not even equipped for the basic stuff."