A decade following the UK entered into a hasty referendum that polarised the country and caused turmoil, a advisory comes from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical might transpire with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering disturbances for which no one is equipped.
That represents the warning from two respected journalists from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a potentially contentious and transformative referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can gain traction swiftly," the commentator remarked. "It is my view that the political architecture of our region remains highly fragile."
New Title Aims to Stir Debate
The pair have examined the political, financial and cultural rationales for any constitutional change in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the topic with a tour of public talks that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns everybody, or must worry every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We must avoid a referendum on a binary, unclear proposal whose implications have not been clarified because then you end up with an extremely divided society where the losing side are not reconciled to defeat and the those successful lack clarity precisely what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would support.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists say this point is imminent, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the prospect, leaving it unclear whether or when there will be a referendum.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has hidden the lack of informed dialogue, stated McBride.
"People tend to be for or against the idea but the actual thinking which could extend past that to achieve it is mostly absent. A great deal has occurred in universities but scarcely any elected officials or advocates are willing to participate with even the basics. For instance, which kind of country should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, none of the commentators advocates unity or the status quo. Both authors two articles that strive for impartiality in presenting the case for a united Ireland and the case against, marshalling economic and social figures, past examples and constitutional models.
Arguments cover identity markers, levies, health services, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the danger of unionist unrest. The goal is to inform and provoke conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," commented the writer. "Debate suggests an recognition of the notion that there could be reasonable perspectives on either side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters claim they favour unification but reject greater financial contributions or adopting a different emblem to acknowledge unionists' British culture.
"The Irish government does need to determine what the proposal from pro-unification movements is other than just saying: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked the commentator.
Possibility of Referendum
McBride thinks a national vote in his era is probable and that it may take place unexpectedly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a negligent secretary of state who states: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, legitimate perspectives, he said. "Somebody will prevail in this matter and somebody will ultimately not succeed but both parties has possesses something to gain from the alternative viewpoints."
Request for Wider Dialogue
Westminster needed to participate in the dialogue, urged O’Toole. "This involves your state. It is a British question just as much as it is an Irish matter."
