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Only 48 hours prior to the New York race for mayor, Michael Lange issued a bold forecast – going beyond the winner citywide, but precinct by precinct. Lange, an expert in elections who grew up in New York City, devoted more than ten years in progressive politics and emerged as a kind of local celebrity this year for his thorough analyses into city data and voter surveys.

He released his extremely precise forecast map – which correctly forecast that Zohran Mamdani would win although failed to predict Andrew Cuomo’s solid showing – on his Substack, the Narrative War. Lange possesses a talent for witty coinages. He highlighted, as an example, the split between the progressive stronghold, stretching from Park Slope to Bushwick to Astoria, where he forecasted (accurately) that Mamdani would triumph by large leads, and the conservative-leaning zone on Manhattan’s Upper East and Upper West Sides. There, certain media outlets and financial newspapers surpass the New York Times” in readership and most voters leaned toward the independent, who ran as a moderate alternative.

Voting Day Trends and Unexpected Results

How was your night?

I had to do that because they were dropping approximately 200K votes into the tally frequently! I felt a little nervous initially: The candidate was ahead the early vote by 12 points, but came large groups of votes that came in later and his lead went from 12 to 8%. It was concerning.

Understand, there was a world in which yesterday turned out somewhat badly for Mamdani, where the opponent was going to end up basically doubling his votes from the earlier contest. But the winner added half a million supporters to his primary coalition, and this was critical why he succeeded. He went out and massively expanded his support from the primary.

Coalition Building

Where did Mamdani get those extra votes from?

He assembled the alliance that the left always wanted to build: it’s multiracial, youthful, tenants and it’s people facing cost pressures. He gained significantly with minority communities, everyday New Yorkers, relative to the earlier election. Additionally he further maximized his core of left-leaning activists, young leftists, and Muslims and south Asians. He couldn’t have won without expanding his appeal.

He built the coalition that progressives always wanted to build: diverse, youthful, renters and people struggling with costs

Additionally, there were a number of Trump/Mamdani voters – is this significant?

It is a real thing, confined to working-class Latinos, south Asians and Muslims. Electors in ethnic enclaves that went for the former president last year backed Zohran this year. But it’s not that he was winning over Caucasian laborers and Maga voters.

Turnout and Effects

One of the big stories of the night was the sky-high turnout. Who did that help?

Both sides. Participation was significantly higher than I had expected. I thought we might exceed two million, but it’s closer to 2.3M – that is a lot of darn voters. There was a substantial opposition group, energized, but his supporters was equally driven, and that was enough to win.

You predicted he’d get over half the ballots. Is he on course for that?

Right now you would say he’s favored to get over half. He’s at just over 50% but remain around 200K ballots uncounted at that time. So I don’t think it’s definitive, but I think probable, and I hope he does because afterwards no one can say the Republican was a disruptor.

Republican Collapse

Curtis Sliwa, the conservative contender, is the other big story. His support plummeted.

He didn’t win any district in any area. Not even Tottenville in the borough, similar to an 88% Trump area. That truly surprised me. Cuomo held Caucasian districts, very wealthy areas and devout communities, and plus gained many conservatives on the island who had a high participation. I believe there was a lot of strategic balloting by GOP voters. This happened before the former president tweeted his support for Cuomo, but that definitely helped. It might have changed the outcome unless Mamdani’s coalition hadn’t grown.

Progressive Strongholds

What about your often-discussed left-wing base – was support for the candidate overwhelming in those areas of Brooklyn and Queens?

In my view there was some weakening of the commie corridor in certain places like Astoria or Greenpoint that have older Caucasian residents. In Astoria, instance, the property owners and residents supported Cuomo. Thus there was a little resistance. But no, largely the leftist base is another huge reason why Zohran won – he was polling between high percentages in Fort Greene, Clinton Hill and Bushwick.

Community Support

In the lead-up to the election there was coverage on if Mamdani was making inroads with the community. Any indication that he succeeded?

There are areas with a lot of non-religious and left-inclined voters – such as specific locales – where he did well. However in the affluent districts such as the Upper East Side, his position on Israel definitely mattered there. Likewise in the moderate communities including Queens neighborhoods, or Bronx areas – they favored Cuomo. Plus, there are newcomers from Eastern Europe in southern Brooklyn, they were strongly Cuomo. So I don’t know if there were crazy narrative-busters here, but he did hold left-leaning areas and even parts of the another locale by big margins.

Long-Term Significance

Has Mamdani rewritten what the city represents in politics? Will the progressive base become a launch pad for progressive contenders?

Yes, it’s no coincidence that some of the biggest figures from progressives hail from a handful of neighborhoods in Brooklyn, Queens and the Bronx. I believe that there will be additional examples – people will emerge from these areas to be elevated nationally.

However I believe that each urban center in the US could develop similar progressive hubs. Cities are the epicenters of leftwing power in America – because youth reside there, people rent and they represent locales where people are crushed by the inequalities exist.