Past the Pomp of Vladimir Putin's New Delhi Trip: An Indo-Russian Relationship That Has Frayed.

This diplomatic language and optics from the Russian leader Vladimir Putin's most recent official trip to India spoke of a strong bilateral relationship. Indian PM Narendra Modi greeted Putin at the airport with a embrace, and the leaders took a car journey, mirroring a familiar political gesture. In his address, Modi referred to Putin as "a dear friend" and labeled the Indo-Russian connection as a "guiding star", founded on "shared respect and deep trust" that had "weathered the test of time". This was Putin's 10th visit to India during his 25-year tenure and his twentieth meeting with Modi since the latter assumed office in 2014.

A Gap Between Pageantry and Reality

Yet, a clear divide persists between the symbolism and the substance of this alliance. Although Putin vowed "uninterrupted fuel supplies" to India, the country's companies are in fact purchasing a reduced amount of Russian oil in the face of external pressure. The two countries signed a series of agreements covering migration, health, food security, naval cooperation, and academic collaboration. But, expected revelations on major defence deals failed to materialize. India has abstained from any substantial defence agreements with Russia since the 2022 offensive of Ukraine, a situation fueled by holdups in deliveries of platforms and spare parts as Moscow focuses on its own wartime requirements.

A Relationship With Diminished Geopolitical Heft

This all points to that the Indo-Russian relationship no longer carries the identical geopolitical heft it once did. In the Cold War, India maintained preferential barter arrangements and economic entry to the USSR and its satellite states. This unique alliance reached its pinnacle in 1971 with a Treaty of Peace, Friendship and Cooperation, concluded before a conflict with Pakistan during which Islamabad was supported by the US and China. While both nations have attempted to preserve a semblance of this close tie through a "unique and elevated" alliance declared in 2010, the reality is that their interaction lacks the same importance as New Delhi has significantly deepened relations with the Western world.

Broadening and Underlying Contradictions

New Delhi is not expected to sever its crucial links with Moscow. But, as Western coercion increases on India to reduce its imports of Russian oil, both nations are attempting to broaden the relationship into new areas. On Putin's trip, they announced an economic cooperation program extending until 2030, designed to make their relations "broader, balanced and sustainable". This includes enhancing entry for Indian goods to rectify a trade deficit heavily skewed in Russia's favor. Cooperation between the two covers several strategically important sectors – from space and atomic energy to defence and food security.

Ideological Affinity and Perceived Reliability

At an sentimental plane, a high degree of affinity with Russia remains, particularly among older cohorts of policymakers in New Delhi who remember Moscow's pivotal role during the earlier era. This has translated into a certain level of understanding for the Russian narrative on the Ukraine war. During recent frictions between India and the US, where American leaders have issued sharp remarks about the Indian economy, many in India perceive Russia as a more reliable ally.

This key difficulty, of course, is the continuing war in Ukraine.

The comprehensive declaration issued during Putin's visit made no mention to Ukraine, even though it paradoxically referred to the partnership as an "pillar of global peace and stability". Despite Modi's often-repeated statement that "this is not the era of war", New Delhi's public actions regarding the conflict have been minimal.

Squaring the Circle: New Delhi's Global Balancing Act

This dynamic does not belie the underlying contradictions in India's international stance. The country is set to finalize a trade deal with the EU, following a comparable agreement with the UK earlier year. On the sidelines, India, Australia, and Canada announced a three-way technology initiative. There are ten times more Indian students in the US than in Russia, although moves are being made to boost people-to-people contacts between India and Russia.

How can India square this complex equation? New Delhi will be banking that current peace negotiations will bear fruit, leading to a end of fighting and the removal of a key thorn in its ties with the West. However, should a peace deal is reached, if it fails of a "fair resolution" that upholds Ukraine's sovereignty and borders, scrutiny of the India-Russia alliance will undoubtedly continue in Western capitals.