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It was eight weeks prior that Morgan Rogers found himself on the pitch at Sunderland, looking confused while the Villa manager scolded him for missing a penetrating pass. During that period, as the club failed to win in six, the question was if Rogers' form were an indicator or a cause for the team's more general malaise.

“Following Rogers' second strike… Emery discarded his jacket, extended his arms, and let out a triumphant roar.”

This weekend, in contrast, the touchline reaction was entirely far more favourable. After the in-form star drilled in his second to restore the lead for Villa, the Spanish tactician tore off his coat, spread his arms and shouted in triumph. The team marched on to a tenth straight victory , despite not winning their opening six matches, find themselves just three points adrift of pace-setters Arsenal.

Is Aston Villa Legitimate Hopefuls?

It remains a rather hard question to resolve. Past precedent, a general sense of the club, suggests not. Additionally, they've rarely been completely commanding this season, while the victories have stacked up.

Per the data, twice all season has the side had an xG notably superior than their opponents. For a team who have strung together a ten-match winning streak, they look weirdly vulnerable – yet currently the fine lines are falling their way.

The Reliant Strategy

The current approach seems to be to exchange chances with rivals and wait for their star man to rescue them with two clinical strikes. This was the case against Leeds, it transpired in London, and it happened when facing Manchester United.

Rogers' first goal originated from a brilliant finish, curled precisely inside the post from the corner of the box. His brace-completing goal acted as a slightly less clean iteration of the opener as he seized on a pass from Watkins.

“Rogers’ right foot is now akin to Robben’s legendary left: forewarned does not mean forearmed, and stopping him is another matter entirely.”

How Long Can This Continue?

Logic says not. Against United, Manchester United registered more shots and more efforts on goal. Villa have won each of their last eight by the narrowest of margins. They have allowed goals in all but one of those fixtures.

Regression to the mean might be the biggest rival they will encounter over the coming weeks. Their key man, in all likelihood, cannot keep on thrashing the football into the top corner indefinitely.

A Case for Belief

Maybe there exists a different scenario in which, instead of results trending towards performances, performances begin to trend towards results. Key players may yet return to peak condition.

• Ollie Watkins might resume scoring again.
• The attacking talent could transform into the player he resembled in Germany.
• Tyrone Mings and Pau Torres will eventually regain fitness, strengthening a periodically leaky backline.

This could contain the seeds for a sustained push, but they surely can persist in leaning entirely on Morgan Rogers.

Savoring the Moment

But then, nobody expected this. Nobody thought Villa would be in a Champions League place in December. And most definitely back in October, nobody thought the midfielder by the end of the year would be spearheading a hunt for the title and appearing as an essential England player.

This remarkable period should be enjoyed for the very reason that it feels so unlikely. When the match-winner positioned himself before the Villa faithful after the match orchestrating the applause, he seemed to be thoroughly enjoying it. As he deserves to. Such periods do not happen often and ought to be celebrated.