Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency sparked by the announcement of a new comprehensive peace framework for achieving ceasefire appeared – temporarily – to have been contained. A American diplomat spoke of "substantial progress" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its retaliation: a renewed assault of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.
The Cycle of Diplomacy and Destruction
The chain of opposing developments captured the harsh reality of the current period. By day, diplomatic battles are waged: hopeful statements are released from various governments. Immense energy is expended on managing certain initiatives. By night, Moscow brutally reminds the world that, for them, conflict continues to be the main instrument for achieving "peace".
Nocturnal Warfare
As the offensive developed into the early hours of Tuesday, the present situation of Ukraine's exposure was exposed. Ukraine is capable of detecting missile launches from across the border, a capacity afforded by current data. From witness perspectives, Ukrainian air force fighter jets that had been deployed to engage hostile cruise missiles streaked across the sky – sophisticated military planes delivered to Ukraine by NATO members.
Shortly after, Kyiv's air-defence systems thundered: several firings targeted at a hostile projectile. This was a modern interception technology at work, probably supplied through partner states. Every launch jolts you unexpectedly, shaking the windows. The brief panic quickly becomes resigned acknowledgment: maybe the hostile projectile won't strike its target this time, protecting urban areas from catastrophe and further power outages.
Ongoing Risks
Not long after, a heavy machine gun opened up on a aerial vehicle close by, part of a rapid response unit – almost certainly Western-made equipment. Regrettably, the projectiles didn't strike the opposing UAV – it continued its flight toward its destination.
Periodically, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv greeted the early updates: several casualties, damage and heating outages in numerous residences as a result of the nocturnal offensive. As typically, everyone still maintained normal activities – enduring hostilities. But those full day illustrated Ukraine's vital need on international aid – a reliance that regional partners are evidently unprepared to fill in the near term.
Failed Diplomacy
The 28-point plan from Washington provoked deep reactions, discussion and serious worry – and briefly redirected concern from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have seen this script before, after earlier high-level meetings and multilateral gatherings.
Every new initiative from US leadership adheres to the same pattern: a negotiation push against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, manages to fend off. They manage the tension but never actually win the battle. This cycle will, certainly, continue.
Political Considerations
It is tempting to accuse certain parties of repeatedly advocating Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. American leadership works based on a assumption understood by experienced diplomats: you cannot secure via talks what you have failed to defend militarily. The US administration presumes that it is impossible to force Russia to surrender the land that it already controls in Ukraine's occupied territories.
The challenge is that while accepting these circumstances, Washington does little to deter Moscow, through words or deeds, from assuming that the status quo will not change more in its advantage in the coming year.
Opposing Positions
Therefore, Moscow is confident that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its allies are approaching exhaustion. Their reason to sign a deal that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is close to zero. There may be many attempts to end hostilities, but they will continue as long as Russia's leadership remains completely certain in the result.
On the contrary, Ukrainian leadership believes that Ukraine can still hold out, gradually sacrificing lives and land but preventing a entire defensive failure until circumstances change in its benefit.
Present Conditions
Realistically, there are no actual prerequisites for a truce. Now, personal considerations are entering the equation: political desires to negotiate peace and secure international recognition, and the government's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to estrange crucial supporters, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the national cause against any plan Kyiv finds unacceptable, so that their focus does not switch to domestic problems. And although their mission will now be much harder after current events, it remains very improbable that this will modify their basic position.
These opposing factors are driving the talks.
Assessment and Future
It took a mere seven days to eliminate the 28 points of the most recent proposal. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by American leadership, resistance by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with soothing efforts of representatives, and finally, recent disclosures, all did their job.
While new plans based on established approaches are imminent, Kyiv, London and other Western governments should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter negotiation assaults from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and demonstrate specific hesitation to alter the situation, if they remain united and strengthen their defence capabilities at a much faster pace. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to overcome them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to defend against evening bombardments will, for the coming months, largely rely on sustained allied backing.
