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Back in October 2022, as Rishi Sunak took over as British prime minister, he became the fifth consecutive British prime minister to take up the position over a six-year span.

Unleashed on the UK by Brexit, this represented exceptional governmental instability. So how might we describe what is occurring in France, now on its fifth prime minister in two years – three of them in the past 10 months?

The current premier, the newly reinstated Sébastien Lecornu, may have secured a temporary reprieve on Tuesday, abandoning Emmanuel Macron’s flagship pensions overhaul in return for support from Socialist lawmakers as the cost of his administration's continuation.

But it is, in the best case, a temporary fix. The EU’s second-largest economy is locked in a political permacrisis, the likes of which it has not witnessed for decades – perhaps not since the establishment of its Fifth French Republic in 1958 – and from which there appears no simple way out.

Governing Without a Majority

Key background: ever since Macron initiated an ill-advised snap general election in 2024, the nation has had a hung parliament separated into three opposing factions – left, far right and his own centre-right alliance – none with anything close to a majority.

At the same time, the nation faces dual debt and deficit crises: its debt-to-GDP ratio and budget shortfall are now almost twice the EU limit, and strict legal timelines to approve a 2026 budget that starts controlling expenditures are approaching.

Against that unforgiving backdrop, both Lecornu’s immediate predecessors – Michel Barnier, who served from September to December 2024, and François Bayrou, who held the position from December 2024 to September 2025 – were removed by parliament.

In September, the leader named his close ally Lecornu as his latest PM. But when, a little over two weeks ago, Lecornu unveiled his new cabinet – which turned out to be largely unchanged from before – he faced fury from allies and opponents alike.

So much so that the next day, he stepped down. After only 27 days as premier, Lecornu became the shortest-lived premier in modern French history. In a respectful address, he cited political rigidity, saying “partisan attitudes” and “certain egos” would make his job virtually unworkable.

A further unexpected development: shortly after Lecornu’s resignation, Macron asked him to stay on for another 48 hours in a last-ditch effort to secure multi-party support – a task, to put it mildly, filled with challenges.

Next, two of Macron’s former PMs openly criticized the embattled president. Meanwhile, the right-wing RN and radical left France Unbowed (LFI) declined to engage with Lecornu, vowing to reject all future administrations unless there were early elections.

Lecornu stuck at his job, talking to everyone who was prepared to hear him out. At the conclusion of his extension, he appeared on television to say he believed “a path still existed” to avoid elections. The president’s office confirmed the president would appoint a new prime minister two days later.

Macron honored his word – and on Friday reappointed Sébastien Lecornu. So recently – with Macron commenting from the wings that the nation's opposing groups were “fuelling division” and “entirely to blame for the turmoil” – was Lecornu’s critical test. Would he endure – and is he able to approve the crucial budget?

In a critical address, the 39-year-old PM spelled out his budget priorities, giving the centre-left Socialist party (PS), who oppose Macron’s unpopular pension overhaul, what they were expecting: Macron’s key policy would be frozen until 2027.

With the right-wing LR already on board, the Socialists said they would refuse to support censorship votes proposed against Lecornu by the far right and radical left – meaning the administration would likely endure those ballots, scheduled for Thursday.

It is, however, far from guaranteed to be able to pass its planned €30bn budget squeeze: the PS clearly stated that it would be demanding further compromises. “This move,” said its leader, Olivier Faure, “is only the beginning.”

Changing Political Culture

The problem is, the greater concessions he makes to the left, the more he will meet resistance from the centre-right. And, similar to the Socialists, the conservatives are themselves split on dealing with the administration – certain members remain eager to bring it down.

A glance at the parliamentary arithmetic shows how difficult his mission – and longer-term survival – will be. A combined 264 lawmakers from the far-right RN, radical-left LFI, Greens, Communists and UDR want him out.

To succeed, they need a 288-vote majority in parliament – so if they can persuade just 24 of the PS’s 69 deputies or the LR’s 47 representatives (or both) to vote with them, Macron’s fifth precarious prime minister in two years is, like his predecessors, finished.

Few would bet against that happening sooner rather than later. Although, by some miracle, the divided parliament summons up the collective responsibility to pass a budget by year-end, the prospects for the government beyond that look bleak.

So does an exit exist? Early elections would be unlikely to solve the problem: polls suggest nearly all parties except the RN would lose seats, but there would still be no clear majority. A new prime minister would face the same intractable arithmetic.

Another possibility might be for Macron himself to resign. After a presidential vote, his replacement would dissolve parliament and hope to secure a parliamentary majority in the following election. But this also remains unclear.

Polls suggest the next occupant of the Elysée Palace will be Marine Le Pen or Jordan Bardella. There is at least an strong possibility that France’s voters, having chosen a far-right leader, might reconsider giving them parliamentary power.

Ultimately, France may not emerge from its quagmire until its politicians accept the new political reality, which is that decisive majorities are a bygone phenomenon, absolute victory is obsolete, and compromise is not synonymous with failure.

Many think that transformation will not be possible under the country’s current constitution. “This isn't a standard political crisis, but a crise de régime” that will prove anything but temporary.

“The system wasn't built to encourage – and actively discourages – the emergence of governing coalitions common in the rest of Europe. The Fifth Republic could be in its final stage.”