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Against the backdrop of the considerable disarray regarding the United States attacks on Venezuela, the seizure of President Nicolás Maduro, and statements from Trump that the US will “run” the country and “take back the oil”, one thing is clear – these actions create a profoundly disturbing precedent.

Past Interference and a New Threshold Crossed

The United States possesses a dark record of meddling, military incursions, and control in that part of the world, but this past Saturday morning marked its premier large-scale offensive on South American land. “US supremacy in this hemisphere shall not be challenged from now on,” the President stated.

The decision to unilaterally attack another sovereign country and abduct its leader – only a few days after he stated a desire for negotiations – carries even broader implications. We all have reason to be worried.

Deep Instability for a Nation in Crisis

Venezuelans have lived through a dictatorship marked by theft and failure under Mr Maduro, commonly thought to have fraudulently won the most recent election. They now face a future of deep insecurity. Mr Trump has suggested that Maduro's second-in-command, Delcy Rodríguez would follow US instructions, and dismissed rightwing opposition leader and Nobel prize-winner María Corina Machado as a viable alternative.

However, Ms Rodríguez, now the acting leader, has so far sounded notes of defiance – and other parts of the decapitated regime are even more hardline.

From Global Policeman to International Outlaw

A man who came to office vowing to end foreign wars now says he is “unconcerned about deploying troops”. Rebranding the Department of Defense as the Department of War was a substantive signal. He does not see the world’s superpower as a guardian of order; he is transforming it into a renegade nation.

He is convinced that the America's power enables it to do as it wishes with minimal cost: witness the attacks in Nigeria and against Iranian nuclear sites. He claims that the oil resources of Venezuela means this latest episode “will be financially free”.

An Illegal Assault on Sovereignty

George W. Bush initiated war in Iraq on a lie. But this unlawful assault came without UN resolutions of any kind or congressional approval; Democrats were not even informed and say they were given false information in briefings. Mr Trump aims not merely to stretch international norms, but to shatter them.

Put aside the implication this carries to global powers like Russia and China, and consider the destination for America itself. While the raid allegedly resulted in the deaths of 40 Venezuelans, including civilians, no US personnel died. Mr Trump’s growing sense of invincibility will likely encourage more reckless actions.

Flimsy Justifications and Underlying Drivers

Few believe the excuse that this is concerning narcotics. Venezuela is only a small transit route for cocaine; Mr Trump recently exonerated the former Honduran president Juan Orlando Hernández for drugs and weapons crimes. Mr Trump himself has been explicit that he is motivated by the lure of oil as well as personal bravado, the worldview of key officials, and the quest for a legacy as his support at home declines.

A Muted Global Reaction and Institutional Irrelevance

The global reaction, especially in Europe, has – with a few principled deviations – been shockingly muted. That’s not because of Mr Maduro’s sins, but trepidation regarding Mr Trump’s wrath. The forceful statement from UN Secretary General António Guterres was commendable, but this episode underscores the institution’s growing irrelevance.

Mr Trump’s isolationist supporters at home could still pressure him to turn attention back home – but rising medical costs, economic unhappiness and ongoing controversies fuel his desire for external drama.

We are not yet 12 months into his four-year term. World leaders may live to repent if they fail to speak up today, given what – and who – could be next.